Meteorologist Mike Skipper takes a look at the computerized models to prepare a seven-day forecast. (Photo by Deb Patterson)
NORTH WEBSTER — (EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the third of a four-part series on the National Weather Service, Northern Indiana.)
A study five years ago focused on where the National Weather Service was going to be in 10 years. The weather enterprise resulted — a private enterprise and a non-profit government side of the weather.
The two entities work in concert but with two distinct missions. The private sector is profit driven. The non-profit side focuses on public safety, public information and taking the investment of public trust and money to better understand how the atmosphere works, how the planet itself works with a more scientific focus. This sector is the National Weather Service, Northern Indiana.
Michael Lewis, warning coordination meteorologist, explained private agencies focus on long term planning in relation to weather. “The weather service can’t provide that. We just don’t have the resources to provide that support.” Ethics also plays a part. If the government provides information for one company, what about the others? If the same level of support isn’t provided to each, one may reap profits, the other could misinterpret the information and lose money.
“We deal with the raw data, raw material. We let the private side take the raw materials and come up with their solutions,” Lewis said. “The vast majority get the baseline for forecasting from the weather service. The volume of computer models that are run is not something that can be done at a corporate or private level. They are dependent upon sanitized, well reviewed, well behaved data generated by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (information sent to the NWS) to be able to go their route. They take it to the next level to cater to specific needs. For us to do that is something we don’t have the staffing to do.”
The NWS mission is to save lives, minimize losses and to stimulate the economy. While some weather services goals and missions are different, “neither one is good or bad, neither is better or worse. There are times when the weather service outperforms forecast wise.” The models being looked at and interpreted by NWS change. “We’re caught off guard and it’s just not us. Everybody gets caught off guard. It’s not a perfect science.”
Lewis noted because the staff at NWS live and work among the 37 counties it covers, they know there are certain patterns more conducive to certain weather than other patterns. “We know our counties well,” Lewis said. “When you start dealing with things like local lake effect snows, we know it’s not going to be like a Buffalo, N.Y., we know we get these little bands … we know there are some physical differences.”
The NWS, Northern Indiana has a staff working 24/7. “The models are there as a guideline, we have to interpret that … we’ve got to get the news out without hype and without inciting panic. This is where our new focus has been.”
Those interpretations also mean getting information out for its partners in emergency management so decisions can be made. The same is true with warnings. “We put the warnings out there,” Lewis said. NWS cannot force people to take action, just provide the information.
Partnership with media is also important. “They are our mouthpiece,” said Lewis. “We can’t tell them what they put out is right or wrong … They are dependent upon us to be able to get them the information they need to convey to the public.”
The NWS has gone to social media, primarily Facebook and Twitter. “There are many ways to communicate. The weather service is looking how to capitalize on those. There is no reason for people to say I had no idea this was coming. The information is always out there and readily available.”
